Mastery Newsletter October 14, 2020
“…horribly, catastrophically, running-into-Mars-at-5,000-miles-an-hour wrong….”
We’ve killed tens of thousands – for nothing
“…You may find this hard to believe, but this figure emerged by mistake. A pretty major thing to make a mistake about, but that’s what happened.
I don’t expect you or I to get this sort of thing right. But I bloody well expect the experts to do so. They didn’t. They got their IFR and CFR mixed up and multiplied the likely impact of Covid by a factor of ten.
On February 28 it was estimated that Covid was going to have about the same impact as a bad influenza season – almost certainly correct. Eleven days later, the same group of experts predicted that the mortality rate was going to be ten times as high.
This was horribly, catastrophically, running-into-Mars-at-5,000-miles-an-hour wrong.
we need to know the true IFR. Is it a 0.1 percent, or one percent? If it is one percent, we have more than 400,000 deaths to go. If it is 0.1 percent, this epidemic has run its course. For this year, at least.
With swine flu, remember that the IFR started at around two percent. In the end, it was 0.02 percent, which was five times lower than the lowest estimate during the outbreak. The more you test, the lower the IFR will fall.
So where can we look to get the current figures on the IFR?
The best place to look is at the country that has tested more people than anywhere else as a proportion of their population: Iceland.
As of last week, Iceland’s IFR stood at 0.16 per cent. It cannot go up from here. It can only fall. People can’t start dying of a disease they haven’t got.
This means that we’ll probably end up with an IFR of about 0.1 percent, maybe less.
Not the 0.02 percent of Swine Flu – somewhere between the two, perhaps.
In short, the 0.1 percent prophecy has proved to be pretty much bang on.
Which means that we’ve had all the deaths we were ever going to get. And which also means that lockdown achieved, almost precisely nothing with regard to Covid. No deaths were prevented.
Never in history has medical terminology been so badly mangled. Never have statistics been so badly mangled.
When researchers look back at this pandemic, they’ll have absolutely no idea who died because of Covid, or who died –coincidentally– with it. Everything’s been mashed together in a determined effort to make the virus look as deadly as possible.
We’ve killed tens of thousands – for nothing
we threw our elderly and vulnerable under a bus. The very group who should have been shielded. Instead, we caused 20,000 excess deaths in care homes.
Anyone working in care homes, as I do, knows why we got 20,000 excess deaths. Government policy did this.
We locked down in fear. We killed tens of thousands unnecessarily, in fear.
We crippled the economy, and left millions in fear of their livelihoods.
We have trapped abused women and children at home with their abusers.
We have wiped out scores of companies, and crushed entire industries.
Lockdown can be seen as a complete and utter disaster.
And it was all based on a nonsense, a claim that Covid was going to kill one percent.
A claim that can now be seen to be utterly and completely wrong.
Sweden, which did not lock down, has had a death rate of 0.0058 percent.
It takes a very big person to admit they have made a horrible, terrible mistake.
But a horrible, terrible mistake has been made.
Let’s end this ridiculous nonsense now.
And vow never to let such monumental stupidity happen ever again.
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