From an investment newsletter writer. Jeff Brown is not a doctor. He did however live in Hong Kong during the SARS episode of 2002 and learned some lessons.

 

“…Sweden is only weeks away from achieving herd immunity in Stockholm.

 

And guess what? It worked.

 

Sweden’s health care system wasn’t overwhelmed, and it has only had about 3,000 deaths in the country. It is well past the peak infection. And I expect that no special measures will be required in the fall. The country will have already reached herd immunity.

 

Others in Europe are criticizing Sweden. Denmark and Norway, who imposed lockdowns, have less than 1,000 deaths. But the critics forget one key point… The area under the curves is the same. The infections have only been spread out over a longer period of time….”

 

Full story:

Dear Reader,

Sweden’s approach to managing the current pandemic stands as a singular totem in opposition to almost the rest of the world.

The country demonstrated remarkable courage not to bend to the fear and panic spread by Neil Ferguson, an epidemiologist from Imperial College, and the mass media hungry for big headlines.

Why is Sweden unique? It didn’t shut down its economy.

Instead, it applied a rational set of rules designed to flatten the rate of infections to not overwhelm its health care system. The rules are simple.

Restaurants and bars stay open, but only for table service. Younger students stay in school, as they are the lowest risk population. This also allows parents to work. Gatherings of more than 50 people are not allowed. No one can visit a retirement home (eldercare facility). And anyone who gets sick needs to self-quarantine for two weeks.

The approach is based on two simple truths.

First, a virus like COVID-19 cannot be stopped. Its reproductive rate is high, and it will spread widely and quickly. The only thing that can be controlled is the timeframe over which it spreads (e.g., a matter of months vs. a year).

Second, flattening the curve does not necessarily mean saving lives or reducing infections. It simply means spreading them out. This is easy to see in the diagram below from the University of Michigan.

The most important thing for us to understand about “the curve” is that the area under the curve is the same for both curves. Put simply, the same number of people will become infected with COVID-19. The only thing that changes is the timeframe.

Sweden believed that by putting those above-mentioned measures in place, it would be able to keep the number of infections low enough that its health care system wasn’t overloaded. It knowingly allowed COVID-19 to spread among the healthy part of its population.

Why?

Sweden is working toward herd immunity. It understands that, in the absence of a vaccine, that is the only way to stop it. Herd immunity occurs when a larger percentage of a population has developed a natural immunity to a virus.

That percentage is likely around 60% for COVID-19. It’s the stage when the virus’ ability to be transmitted gets disrupted enough that its spread slows dramatically or stops entirely.

And Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist, believes that Sweden is only weeks away from achieving herd immunity in Stockholm.

And guess what? It worked.

Sweden’s health care system wasn’t overwhelmed, and it has only had about 3,000 deaths in the country. It is well past the peak infection. And I expect that no special measures will be required in the fall. The country will have already reached herd immunity.

Others in Europe are criticizing Sweden. Denmark and Norway, who imposed lockdowns, have less than 1,000 deaths. But the critics forget one key point… The area under the curves is the same. The infections have only been spread out over a longer period of time.

The world will owe Sweden a debt of gratitude this time next year. The different approach will allow the world to learn the best way to deal with a coronavirus in the future.

COVID-19 wasn’t the first. It most certainly won’t be the last. And I am certain that the world will be better prepared the next time around.

 

 

To Your Joy, Energy and Health,

 

 

Matti Anttila

 

Mission: To help you take shortcuts to More Joy, Energy, Health and fulfillment in life.

 

Find out How to Feel Authentic Joy, Even When Unhappy http://joyenergyandhealth.com

 

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